Memoirs of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani – March 27, 2003

Bombing and missile attacks on Baghdad, Basra, Tanuma, and Mosul, and the landing of American paratroopers at the small Sulaymaniyah airport [in Iraqi Kurdistan], in preparation for opening a northern front, and serious ground and air clashes around Najaf are among the news of the Iraq war. Fighting is also continuing in Nasiriyah. In this context, several important points are noteworthy:

1 – Differences of opinion between Colin Powell and Donald Rumsfeld over the number of troops required in the war. Powell believes that for every enemy soldier, three soldiers are needed on the attacking side. Based on this, he considers the number of invading forces too small and sees it as a cause of military difficulties. In contrast, Rumsfeld believes that technology matters, not manpower. Many experts now see Rumsfeld’s view as a reason for the early failures of the United States in Iraq.

2 – George W. Bush has requested an additional $75 billion war budget; of this, about $8 billion is for one month of war, support for allies, and the beginning of reconstruction and relief plans. Some consider $75 billion insufficient.

3 – The White House’s mistakes in unilateral action, bypassing the United Nations, clashing with European allies such as Germany and France, increasing tensions with Russia, and intensifying psychological warfare through the spread of false information (later disproven) have led to a decline in America’s credibility and global influence, undermining its recent projection of power.

4 – Loss of credibility in the eyes of global public opinion and respected international figures has made the United States isolated and widely despised. The number of public protests and insulting slogans against George W. Bush and the U.S. is increasing without precedent, and the use of offensive language against America has become so widespread that it could fill a large book.

5 – The military strategy of the United States and Britain, with symbolic participation from Australia and Spain, is seen as evidence of weak American military management. General Tommy Franks, commander of the regional war effort, has received the most criticism, especially because by the seventh day of the war he had still not managed to capture or secure even minor objectives such as Faw, Umm Qasr, and Nasiriyah. American forces have been stretched along a narrow 400-kilometer road, exposed to attack. Had Iraqi forces had stronger morale, they could have inflicted daily heavy losses on this vulnerable line.

In addition, the ineffective bombardment and missile attacks, which have so far failed to seriously weaken the Iraqi Ba’ath regime, have increased public anger and pushed Iraqi society closer to the government, reflecting poor strategic judgment by the U.S. and British war machine.

The invading forces—calling themselves a “coalition for the liberation of Iraq”—had initially claimed they were coming to save the Iraqi people, but in practice they are causing civilian suffering and have revived the bitter memory of their 1991 behavior. At that time, George H. W. Bush encouraged uprisings against the Ba’ath regime, but after uprisings in 14 provinces, the United States allowed the regime to suppress them brutally, including with helicopters and even chemical weapons.

Today too, they are effectively harming civilians while speaking about humanitarian aid shipments that cannot even enter cities, and local populations are not willing to accept such assistance.

7 – Colin Powell again reiterated the previous U.S. policy on Iraq, stating that after the fall of the Ba’ath regime, a military government led by an American general would be established, followed by a civilian administration headed by an American official, and only gradually would power be transferred to Iraqi representatives. These statements deepen international pessimism, as such stages appear highly unrealistic and further isolate the United States.

8 – The Bush administration, in what appears to be a major mistake or part of its psychological warfare strategy, has awarded reconstruction contracts for postwar Iraq to American companies, mostly linked to Republicans, prompting sharp criticism even from Democrats.

9 – Britain is trying to return matters partly to the United Nations, both due to tensions with European Union members, domestic public opinion concerns, and fear of further unilateral U.S. action. However, the United States is unwilling to operate within international frameworks.

10 – The UN Security Council has convened to address Iraq’s humanitarian needs. The United States wants control over oil sales and aid distribution, while the UN Secretary-General argues this should be entrusted to the UN. Many council members believe the occupying power should itself manage these responsibilities. Due to veto conflicts, the Council is unable to make a decision, and Iraq’s humanitarian crisis is expected to continue, ultimately reflecting negatively on the United States.

11 – Russia–U.S. tensions are escalating. The United States accuses Russia of indirectly assisting Iraq by providing anti-tank weapons, night-vision equipment, electronic warfare tools, and missile guidance interference systems—although these were previously supplied during the Iran–Iraq war. Russia strongly criticizes U.S. aggression, and its parliament has postponed disarmament discussions with the United States indefinitely. Igor Ivanov is cited as indicating Russia’s intention to restore its global role after post-Soviet difficulties.

12 – The ongoing UN Security Council meetings on Iraq, requested by non-aligned countries and held publicly, are unlikely to produce binding decisions due to veto conflicts, but will increase diplomatic pressure on the United States.

13 – A potential opportunity for Iran has emerged if the war is prolonged, which, if properly understood and used, could yield significant results. All parties are currently careful regarding Iran. British Prime Minister Tony Blair reportedly sent positive signals regarding Iran, including discussion of possible compensation for the Iran–Iraq war (estimated at $1,000 billion) and cooperation against the Mojahedin-e Khalq. Some trade restrictions against Iran have also been eased.

14 – Hans Blix strongly criticized U.S. accusations regarding Iraq’s disarmament in a UN Security Council session, stating that any report not aligned with U.S. expectations was attacked, preventing the process from reaching a conclusion.

15 – Iraq’s internal weaknesses are also significant, including the authoritarian nature of the Ba’ath Party and lack of effective resistance tactics. Although airpower is unavailable, small mobile groups and asymmetric attacks could have been used more effectively against vulnerable U.S. positions.

16 – Ultimately, it is highly likely that the invaders will succeed in overthrowing the Iraqi regime, but if this occurs with heavy costs, loss of legitimacy, and widespread resentment, it will temporarily restrain future U.S. interventions.

Reports also indicate continued British advances into Tanuma and Zubair, and heavy fighting in Nasiriyah with significant casualties.

17 – Anti-war protests are escalating globally, including school closures in Germany, mass demonstrations in New York, and the arrest of large numbers of protesters. Desmond Tutu was even handcuffed during protests. The U.S. shows sensitivity toward areas linked to Ansar al-Islam in Kurdistan, repeatedly bombing them, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan reportedly assists these operations, though they are said to have taken refuge in safer Kurdish areas.

18 – The invading forces conduct approximately 1,500 combat sorties daily, many involving bombing and missile strikes, in addition to long-range cruise missile attacks.

19 – Total Iraqi casualties are reported to be under 400 dead and about 6,000 wounded; if accurate, this level of losses may be sustainable, especially since strategic infrastructure such as power plants, oil facilities, and bridges are not being fully targeted, presumably for postwar use.

Pressure has been exerted on me to lead Friday prayers in place of Mohammad Yazdi, but I refused, considering it inappropriate.

State TV and reporters near the Arvand River, Shalamcheh, Khorramshahr, Abadan, and Iraqi Kurdistan are producing incomplete and sometimes contradictory reports due to limited access inside Iraq.