Possible scenarios in the coming days following the death of Ebrahim Raisi

Abdollah Abdi - Abdi Media

Scenario One: If the system, particularly Ayatollah’s will, is to push the Islamic Republic towards a more radical direction and, with the coordination of the upcoming Assembly of Experts, pave the way for the next intended leader while making it a bit easier, it’s natural to expect to see candidates like Saeed Jalili for the presidency or somewhat milder figures like Mohammad Mokhber and similar options at this level.

Scenario Two: If the Ayatollah wants to manage the situation but do so with a compliant soldier, preserving him for other purposes—especially given the precarious position of Ghalibaf’s presidency in the upcoming parliament—he might consider using Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf to resign from his parliamentary position.

Scenario Three: If the Ayatollah wants to make a serious decision for a new direction based on the failed previous signals and an understanding of the real global situation, he should turn to Ali Larijani. There are already signs of this with Larijani's increased activity in social media and the Ayatollah’s attention to him in assigning responsibilities, as well as placing him in a position of readiness.

Of course, the Ayatollah will definitely engage in serious negotiations with him to ensure he maintains control over current key affairs.

Scenario Four: The Ayatollah may, considering higher interests, have thought about a specific and unexpected option, at least on the surface. Given Mohseni Ejei's lack of meaningful participation in the Assembly of Experts elections and the experience of Ebrahim Raisi’s past executive management, it seems very unlikely that Ejei would aim for the presidency from the judiciary, risking his current and past legal experience against the high expectations of the public and significant domestic and foreign challenges.

Unless, unless, unless specific conditions unfold differently.

One must be patient and carefully monitor the situation after moving beyond the current conditions, avoiding excitement.

In any case, given the passing of Ebrahim Raisi in this manner, the next president, whoever that may be, will have to fill significant managerial gaps and perhaps slightly compensate for the shortcomings of the previous revolutionary government. Moreover, they will not be able to continually assert that the previous government did this or that!

Thus, the next head of government will face immense challenges ahead, and they must take significant yet calculated steps toward the future.

The upcoming term of the Assembly of Experts and the presidency is likely to be a very critical period for the revolution and the Islamic Republic.