Memoirs of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani – March 31, 2003

Two hours were spent in holiday meetings. The discussions were about the war, from various perspectives. Some ministers were worried about budget problems in the current year and believed that the budget deficit would reach five thousand billion tomans, and if oil prices also fell, the situation would become dangerous.

In the afternoon, Mr. Qasem Soleimani came and presented an analysis of the war in Iraq. He believed that the United States would finish the Iraqi regime within a few weeks and that the Iraqi army was not fighting well, but the Republican Guard forces might fight well in Baghdad. He said Iraq’s assumption had been that the United States would rely mostly on air attacks and on popular uprising and army rebellion to bring down Saddam Hussein, and therefore Iraqi forces were organized accordingly and are now not showing active battlefield maneuvering against the invading army.

On the other hand, the United States had assumed that the Iraqi people would welcome the invaders and that the army would not remain loyal to Saddam’s regime, and therefore had brought a small force and expected to eliminate most of the regime’s leaders in the first night of bombing, none of which had materialized. He said he disagreed with many commanders in these assessments.

Today, for the severalth consecutive day, there were military clashes with the invaders in Karbala and Najaf, causing casualties. Qom Seminary and the Association of Seminary Teachers have reacted to the situation.

The United States has officially announced 38 dead and 190 missing so far, but no one believes these figures. The British have also suffered similar losses, including 12 killed by friendly fire from American soldiers, which has led to criticism of U.S. forces.

In Afghanistan, attacks on foreign military forces have increased, and a sense of insecurity has spread across the country, with many believing that the focus on Iraq has led to neglect of Afghanistan.

Anti-war protests are increasing.

Since Nowruz, most parts of the country have experienced rain and snow, and the weather has become colder. Mr. Shahriar, the son-in-law of my brother Ahmad who works in construction, said that policies restricting building density have caused unemployment and higher housing prices.